When humans discovered agriculture about 10,000 years ago in Mesopotamia, they stopped being clumsy herds that moved around to survive, the first permanent human settlements emerged, and soon they “invented” cities and civilization.
Since then, peoples, now countries, have only grown, despite pandemics, natural disasters, plagues or wars. According to UN studies, 1.6 million years ago the world population was between 2 and 5 million humans. In 35,000 BC, there were between 10 and 15 million inhabitants. In 1650, seventeenth century after Christ, 500 million; in 1900, it was already 2,000 million; In 1960 it reached 3,000 million.
There are currently 8 billion people in cuba. In 2100 there will be 10,400 million, and it is estimated that in the year 2500 the ceiling of 14,000 million earthlings will be reached and the global population will stabilize until it begins to decrease. This shows that human beings multiply rapidly, at a greater or lesser rate. But in Cuba, at the stroke of communism, the opposite happens.
They die more than those who are born; Total population falls incessantly
According to official Castro statistics published by the Datosmacro.com entity, in 2015 Cuba had 11,339,894 inhabitants, and now, in mid-2023, it has 10.6 million according to official and unofficial data, it has about 10.6 million. In these 8 years the total population of Cuba has decreased by 739,894 inhabitants.
We will now see the causes of this serious Cuban demographic crisis. One of the most worrying is that in Cuba more people die than are born. A few days ago, the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) of the regime revealed that in 2022 on the island there were 95,403 births and 120,098 deaths. 24,695 more Cubans died than were born.
In 2020, amid the pandemic, there were 112,439 deaths and 105,038 births in Cuba. That is, the difference between more deaths than births, despite Covid-19, was smaller: 7,401 people. In 2022 the total population of the country decreased by 23,704 inhabitants. The total population fell from 11,113,215 at the end of 2021, to 11,089,511 inhabitants on December 31, 2022.
The regime does not count in its figures the record exodus of emigrants
And, beware, these are false, manipulated figures. The scheme does not count the number of emigrants until two years have passed. That is, the official figure for 2022 must be subtracted from at least the 400,000 Cubans who emigrated that year and the first months of 2023. That is why if the math does not fail, the population of Cuba currently does not exceed 10.6 million inhabitants.
In general, the demographic rate in Cuba is dangerously in the negative. In 2022 it was -2.1 per 1,000 inhabitants. That is fatal in one of the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere who ironically, before communism, was one of the three most advanced countries in Latin America and a magnet for attracting immigrants from around the world.
Another cause of this alarming demographic decline in Cuba is the very low fertility rate. According to demographers, each fertile woman must have at least 2.1 children for the population to replace itself and not decrease. But in Cuba it does not exceed 1.6 children. For example, in Bolivia it is 2.9, in Guatemala (3.0), Mexico (2.2), Honduras (2.5), Panama (2.5), Argentina (2.3), Peru (2.4), and in the Dominican Republic, 2.4 children per woman.
Cuban women do not want to have children and go hungry
Cuban women are reluctant to procreate because they do not want to have children so that they go hungry and lack basic necessities. Thus, between massive emigration and the non-replacement of the population, Cuba is rapidly losing the little know-how it has left, and a lot of human capital. The economically active population (EAP), the lever that moves the world, is shrinking.
On the other hand, the propaganda argument that a low fertility rate is synonymous with development is false. Indeed, in developed nations women have fewer children than in the rest of the planet, but these advanced nations have a large EAP, are very productive and equipped with high technology; this makes it possible to generate resources to support those who no longer work, have a high or at least acceptable standard of living and to increase exports.
Todays Crisis spreads to tomorrow’s future: Cuba’s aging and rapidly declining working population
When so many young people emigrate, the aging of the Cuban population accelerates, and their EAP goes down. Today, Cuba has the fastest aging population in Latin America.
This generates a harmful equation and inversely proportional relationship: in an increasingly poor country with hungry people, the number of elderly increases while at the same time the number of people working to support the elderly and produce the goods and services that the country needs decrease.
As the labor force shrinks, Cuba will consequently become poorer. That is the reality today, and for the future. It will not be possible to count on the human capital necessary for the future reconstruction of the country in the post-Castro era. In addition, with fewer people working, the state has fewer financial resources and abandons even more retirees and the elderly.
In short, Castro’s tyranny is destroying Cuba, and its people. It is a shame that the European Union and the Biden Administration not only look the other way but continue to make concessions to the mafia that usurps power on the wretched island.
